The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a dire warning for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, predicting it to be one of the busiest on record. This forecast, the most severe ever released by the agency, is attributed to record-breaking ocean heat and a brewing La Nina.
NOAA's annual outlook, released on Thursday, indicates an 85% probability that the Atlantic hurricane season, which commences in June, will exceed the average in storm activity. The agency anticipates between 17 and 25 named storms to form this summer and fall, with 8 to 13 escalating to hurricane status, characterized by sustained winds of at least 75 mph. Furthermore, four to seven of these are expected to become major hurricanes, boasting winds of at least 111 mph.
"This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad stated. He emphasized that this forecast is the busiest NOAA has ever seen for their May outlooks. The agency typically updates its forecasts in August.
The forecast has been echoed by about 20 other groups, including universities, other governments, and private weather companies. All but two of these groups anticipate a busier and more severe summer and fall for hurricanes. The average of these forecasts predicts about 11 hurricanes, approximately 50% more than in a typical year.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham voiced his concerns, stating, "All the ingredients are definitely in place to have an active season." He urged people to be prepared, but not alarmed, with a particular emphasis on water safety as 90% of hurricane-related deaths are water-related and preventable.
The forecast is a red flag that should prompt people to be more prepared than ever, according to emergency officials. Joe Valiente, Director of Jefferson Parish Emergency Management Department, stressed the importance of being well-stocked with essentials like canned food, water, and batteries, especially given the threat of rapid intensification of storms.
The forecast's severity is attributed to two key factors: ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, where storms form and require warm water for fuel, and the presence of a La Nina or El Nino. These natural and periodic cooling or warming of Pacific Ocean waters alter weather patterns worldwide. A La Nina tends to amplify Atlantic storm activity while suppressing storminess in the Pacific, and an El Nino does the opposite.
"We've never had a La Nina combined with ocean temperatures this warm in recorded history so that's a little ominous," warned University of Miami tropical meteorology researcher Brian McNoldy. He added that he wouldn't be surprised to see storms earlier than usual this year as a result.
Climate change is generally making the strongest hurricanes even more intense, causing storms to rain more and rapidly intensify, McNoldy said. This year, Colorado State University is forecasting a season that's overall 71% stronger and busier than the average season.
The forecast is a stark reminder of the potential devastation hurricanes can bring, and the importance of preparedness cannot be overstated. As the hurricane season approaches, it is crucial for residents in hurricane-prone areas to stay informed and take necessary precautions to protect themselves and their property.
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